Early on the morning of February 2, about forty thousand revelers gathered at Gobbler’s Knob, awaiting the emergence of arguably the country’s most famous forecaster: Punxsutawney Phil, the groundhog.

According to legend, if Phil sees his shadow, the U.S. is in for six more weeks of winter weather. If Phil doesn’t see his shadow, we can expect an early spring.

That same morning, just a few hours’ drive east of Punxsutawney, a far less festive group of forecasters assembled. They performed a similar analysis, but instead of Phil’s shadow, evaluated something known as the “January Barometer.” It states the performance of the S&P 500 Index in the month of January predicts the market’s direction for the entire year.

Vista’s Chief Wealth Officer, Dougal Williams, shares how the “January Barometer” might impact the market in coming months.